Issues with opponents getting stronger after red cards

[gogs67]

Meanwhile, in 'real life'.........

In the Premier League between 1992 and 2000, for instance, a side that was drawing when they had a man sent off went on to win the game 11.8% of the time if the red card happened in the first hour, 3.7% if it happened between 60 and 80 minutes, and 4.5% if it happened after 80 minutes. Looking at the top divisions in England, Spain, Italy, Germany and France since the start of 2006-07, those figures are 13.4% for up to an hour, 8.1% for 60-80 minutes and 4.9% for after 80 minutes.

Between 1992 and 2000 in the Premier League, teams losing when they had a man sent off went on to draw or win 11.1% of the time if the red card happened before the hour, 5.9% if it happened between 60 and 80 minutes, and 4.8% if it came after 80 minutes; in the top five European leagues since the start of 2006-07, the figures are 11.5% for a red card in the first hour; 11.4% for a red card between 60 and 80 minutes; and 2.7% for a card after 80 minutes. So there is a slight but distinct trend suggesting having a man sent off is no longer quite such a negative as it was.

[Farfromtilidie]

Meanwhile, in 'real life'.........

Based on the above I worked out the following:

Game 1 - losing 1-0, 2 men sent off within first hour, lost 2-1 ~ 11.8% (being very generous here)
Game 2 - winning 3-1, man sent off within the hour, lost 3-4 = 11%
Game 3 - winning 2-1, man sent off in 80th minute, drew 2-2 = 4.8%
Game 4 - losing 2-4, man injured in 73rd minute, lost 2-6 ~ 8.1%

So: Probability(my sequence of results) = 11.8% x 11% x 4.8% x 8.1%
= 0.005%!!!

Not sure if the above was try to offer a counter argument but this would suggest that what's happened is pretty damn unrealistic! The only other matches in my season where the opposition lost a man either through sending off or injury I did win however, but both games were right at the start of the season. Did the game engine change recently?