Same opponent.
Better conditions+smaller win bonus=Loss on penalties.
Worse conditions+bigger win bonus=Win.

A friendly match this morning vs 4-4-2.
I'm playing 3N-4-1-2 (one of the suggested counter formations for 4-4-2).
All players in positions.
Both managers present but my stadium is full so +5% possession to me.
Condition and morale green.
Result: 1-1 FT&ET, lost 4-5 on penalties.
WIN BONUS: 7.5K.

League match away this evening vs the same 4-4-2.
I'm playing 4-2-2-2 hex (which is NOT one of the counter formations for 4-4-2).
One player out of position (ML played in AML).
The home manager is absent but the stadium is full so only +3% possession to me.
Condition and morale green.
Result: won 3-1.
WIN BONUS: 20K.