Precisely my point...the variables make it next-to-impossible to actually glean an answer that we, as game-players, can use to improve our knowledge of the game, without accepting that each conclusion is going to be opinion, rather than fact.
Interestingly, this is true for almost all aspects of the game, including this one. We actually don't have the facility to prove/disprove much...the lack of control you refer to.
Nothing wrong with basing things on 'feel' at all; indeed, it's all we have to work with. But, much like a counter-formation table, which gets hundreds of replies complaining that it's wrong, or that someone lost, it's important to understand that any findings will be general and will not apply in every case.
Please post any data you get...would be interesting to see. Afraid I don't have any 1* players to do it with, but have done it with 3* players in the past and found it to be pretty random.