Understanding role of Luck in top eleven

[gogs67]

If this were true (that everything is decided from the first day of the season) then tanking would be impossible, you'd just keep winning or losing as per the 'predetermined plan' regardless of what team you put out.

So I don't think the game goes anywhere near this far in 'fixing' things. However, there is clearly a large amount of chance involved; there's a significant factor involved in determining the outcome of games which is random. Sometimes that random element works in our favour and sometimes it works against us. Because of the way our weird human brains work we generally have a tendency to focus on the negative ways it affects us and dismiss the positive.

So we can look to figure out those parts of the game engine that we can influence, but it's an almost impossible task when that random element is thrown in.

You're pretty much spot on with all that.
I'll repost something I put up on another thread a while back I can't be bothered doing a huge long pot on the intricacies and probabilities but every single thing we do in this game has an effect, even minutely, but all that can be negated by the chance factor in 'the dice', which some like to call 'trolling' or 'pre determined'.

"The game engine is one gigantic set of dice rolls with every single action you do influencing, however slightly, the outcome.
And because it's all down to probabilities it means that there are no 'set' results just because one team is better than the other, but the chances of the better team winning are better then them losing.
I've played thousands, and I mean thousands, tens of thousands maybe, games of backgammon over the years and the similarities of outcome to this game are quite striking when analysing that many dice rolls.
There have been 'impossible' runs of scores, and many times I've questioned the 'bad luck', but funnily enough we never question the 'good luck'.
And that is with a pair of dice with no random factors or influence.
Imagine this game with hundreds of extra small permutations, each having a 0.01% effect on the probable outcome? Over a thousand games the better team will always win the majority, but over 10 games say then these odds are drastically reduced, and in a one-to-one there's about a 20% chance of an upset unless the teams are way different.
Troll results are just the lesser probability happening, but it will happen.
Even today in the Cup, I was 4-2 down from the first leg, playing at home 1-1 with 10 mins to go and opponent got a player sent off, I scored from the free kick and then got a goal in the 89th minute and went through on away goals.
Now did I troll him, or did the dice just run favourably?"

[nikolgiorgos]

You're pretty much spot on with all that.
I'll repost something I put up on another thread a while back I can't be bothered doing a huge long pot on the intricacies and probabilities but every single thing we do in this game has an effect, even minutely, but all that can be negated by the chance factor in 'the dice', which some like to call 'trolling' or 'pre determined'.
"The game engine is one gigantic set of dice rolls with every single action you do influencing, however slightly, the outcome.
And because it's all down to probabilities it means that there are no 'set' results just because one team is better than the other, but the chances of the better team winning are better then them losing.
I've played thousands, and I mean thousands, tens of thousands maybe, games of backgammon over the years and the similarities of outcome to this game are quite striking when analysing that many dice rolls.

Exactly
I have written many times this.
TE is like the backgammon game . Roll dice is critical, as skills, experience, right decisions too.
An amateur who learned the game yesterday, in one match can destroy the world master.
But he 'll never win the championship.
Unfortunately very few know and play this game to find the similarities (it's also about if you 're playing aggressively or not).