Counter does work I can tell you. To me, overall quality is the main factor but tactic comes just right behind. And luck also. In another part of the forum I mentioned that sometimes OBVIOUS counter does not work: for instance, 4-5-1 V is most of the times hopeless against 3 WAM teams, even with no wing D or DM (against all odds). But if you just move 1 DC to DMC, it becomes a completely different story. Counter does work, but one needs to find out which one.