The result of each game : is it mathematical or just random ?

[Spartan117]

Maybe I wasn't clear enough, but opportunities come exaclty out of that and I partially agree with you except for one thing.
I always play defensive and counter attack and I have a lot of possession in my favor everytime, but when I played against this team which is weaker, he got a lot of bonus possession out of friends watching up to +15% in his favor (at my home with me watching!). It was enough for him to get 55% possession, 7 shots and 4 goals.

My point is that he didn't score more goals and get more opportunities because he had more possession than you, it was because the game engine favoured his tactics and formation among several other factors over your own. Like I said before shots on target and number of saves is the most reliable stat to use definitely not possession.

[HairDryer]

The truth is we dont know what we doing wrong or right. There is so many factor in this game where we can blame morale condition formation tactic bonus training so on and so on. Each have their own perception or believe what work and what not.
For me is quality 9* team will have 99% winning against 7* and below with right formation( not tanking). 1% troll which can happen once in a while. You can put aside morale condition bonus and not watching or watching which is all cosmetic.
So quality is the main factor in calculating the result and have all the advantage.

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[USARABAT]

also experience is a factor ( more number of games )

[KenoticFC]

There is no tactics or anything you can do to stop a troll result from happening in a live match. Over the seasons I payed attention to this matches and there is a case for predetermination here. The live animation goals for example, when there is a counter-attack and your players starts moving faster toward the goal 95% of the time there is a goal, the other 5% it is a clear indication of a ''bad day'' and the match will go against you, a draw or a loss. The other animation to pay attention that results mostly in a goal is when the corner shot finds your player and he hits the ball, usually there is a goal, every time my players miss this clear opportunities it is a sign that the match is going against me.

[USARABAT]

There is no tactics or anything you can do to stop a troll result from happening in a live match. Over the seasons I payed attention to this matches and there is a case for predetermination here. The live animation goals for example, when there is a counter-attack and your players starts moving faster toward the goal 95% of the time there is a goal, the other 5% it is a clear indication of a ''bad day'' and the match will go against you, a draw or a loss. The other animation to pay attention that results mostly in a goal is when the corner shot finds your player and he hits the ball, usually there is a goal, every time my players miss this clear opportunities it is a sign that the match is going against me.

I've noticed this but can't remember if I had lost or drawn ALL times when I faced similar situations. I will associate your observation about the indicators of a "bad day" with the result of the games from now on.

Some teams play 2 games per day ( league/ cup or League / CL ) did you notice a complete bad day in both games or lets say " half day bad performance " ?

[USARABAT]

Check where the programmers have reached to understand the power of mathematical and physic algorithm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2rhRJkWOEI

[Tyltyl]

Check this out from my cup semifinal. My opponent was SLIGHTLY weaker than me, but very frightening! In the first game we were both present, I win 1-6 away in a very straightforward and easy game.
I just played the 2nd leg, my opponent didn't watch probably thinking we were done. If he did he would probably had the opportunity to boot me out!
Check the stats. I also changed my formation from the same I had in the first game after the first 2 goals. I ****ing shat myself! WTF?

[USARABAT]

as you said the difference is slight .... the battle ended as following : 3 pts each and u won with 1 goal difference 6-5 ...
Both teams won out of home land (if i am not wrong)

Question: Did the absence of your opponent in the second game made a difference ?