The result of each game : is it mathematical or just random ?

[Tyltyl]

Many seasons ago I lost a cup semifinal to a weaker team, on full condition and full morale (Nordeus confirmed that preparation is just cosmetic), using a counter formation, a winning bonus and watching the game.
Apparently it wasn't enough to win.

- If the preparation is just cosmetic, you can just forget it, it won't matter towards the result, right?
- Ok, try using a counter formation, but you still lose. So this doesn't matter, maybe it's something else.
- Maybe it's the tactics? Whatever you use, you won't see a result on screen, because the simulation doesn't reflect the real game, so you don't know what the **** you are actually doing.
- Many people lose against weaker teams, so quality isn't the only important part, I guess.
- Maybe it's a mix of everything? Yeah, maybe, but if we look again about my example above none of this mattered.

I would say it's a mix of numbers mashed together, but in a retarded way
I only use 1 formation, maybe I mix it up a little sometimes, always on defensive and high pressing and usually I win everytime except a few time when the games decides to **** you.

But here's my take:
Whatever you do it doesn't really matter. Probably possession is the only thing that actually works and is active towards the result, because you can see a change in it when you make a change in the formation and in the passing style. It's also more linked to shots on target than we think and it's what generates the final results in a very simplicistic way.
Sometimes troll results happen when your opponents has low possession but still scores, maybe the engine calculates a ratio over this percentage because they don't want to make it too unfair and still give an opportunity to a weaker team.
Example: more possession = more scoring opportunity (which is fair and realistic), but it gives a chance to the team with a lower possesion in order to compensate.

A few days ago I lost against a weaker team, 2nd in my league because he had a lot of friends watching, I lost all my bonus possession and he won 4-1. In the first leg I won 1-2 the same way. He had a lot more possession, so the game showed only his plays, except a few opportunities where I scored and also maybe balanced to my quality.
I also explains why I keep winning with the same formation, because it works well with high possession. The only games I lost this season (3) where because posession was in favor of my opponent (lost 4-1) or actually more balanced (lost 2-1 both times).

[Spartan117]

Many seasons ago I lost a cup semifinal to a weaker team, on full condition and full morale (Nordeus confirmed that preparation is just cosmetic), using a counter formation, a winning bonus and watching the game.
Apparently it wasn't enough to win.

- If the preparation is just cosmetic, you can just forget it, it won't matter towards the result, right?
- Ok, try using a counter formation, but you still lose. So this doesn't matter, maybe it's something else.
- Maybe it's the tactics? Whatever you use, you won't see a result on screen, because the simulation doesn't reflect the real game, so you don't know what the **** you are actually doing.
- Many people lose against weaker teams, so quality isn't the only important part, I guess.
- Maybe it's a mix of everything? Yeah, maybe, but if we look again about my example above none of this mattered.

I would say it's a mix of numbers mashed together, but in a retarded way
I only use 1 formation, maybe I mix it up a little sometimes, always on defensive and high pressing and usually I win everytime except a few time when the games decides to **** you.

But here's my take:
Whatever you do it doesn't really matter. Probably possession is the only thing that actually works and is active towards the result, because you can see a change in it when you make a change in the formation and in the passing style. It's also more linked to shots on target than we think and it's what generates the final results in a very simplicistic way.
Sometimes troll results happen when your opponents has low possession but still scores, maybe the engine calculates a ratio over this percentage because they don't want to make it too unfair and still give an opportunity to a weaker team.
Example: more possession = more scoring opportunity (which is fair and realistic), but it gives a chance to the team with a lower possesion in order to compensate.

A few days ago I lost against a weaker team, 2nd in my league because he had a lot of friends watching, I lost all my bonus possession and he won 4-1. In the first leg I won 1-2 the same way. He had a lot more possession, so the game showed only his plays, except a few opportunities where I scored and also maybe balanced to my quality.
I also explains why I keep winning with the same formation, because it works well with high possession. The only games I lost this season (3) where because posession was in favor of my opponent (lost 4-1) or actually more balanced (lost 2-1 both times).

Possession isn't a reliable stat to read the Game. More possession is never equal to more opportunities. Your scoring opportunity is dependent on the meter at the bottom of the screen in a live animation, the animation would never show your team attack if the meter isn't in your favor. This meter is more dependent on your formation and orders than it is on possession. For instance, if you set a defensive/ counter-attack strategy against a stronger opponent even if the opponent has 65% possession it doesn't matter, if the game engine favors your tactic over his own the animation will give you more scoring opportunities. A better stat to keep tabs on a live match is shots on target both for and against, and how many of those shots forced the goalie into making a save

[Tyltyl]

Now that I think of it, I can add a few more ideas.
The formation only works towards ball possession, that's all. If you mess it up when you tank, you just lower your possession giving the opponent more scoring opportunities. Hence you lose 0-10. Simple, ok?

Now, I remember that 2 seasons ago while tanking, I encountered other tanking teams, so we both had wrong formations and some matches still ended up with me scoring 2 or 3 goals while conceding 7. How can a wrong team score this much? It should end 0-0, or maybe 1-0, except when ball possession generates his bull****s.
Maybe tactics only give a slightly higher scoring bonus for yourself. Attacking raises your scoring opportunities a little, let's say 5%, while defending it doesn't lower only yours, but the ones of your opponent up to -3%. Makes sense to me.

Let's say you possession is 70%-30%, the higher possession team gets X amount of scoring opportunities (let's say 10) that can generate goals. If you are lucky you get 5 or 6, if you are not and odds are not on your side, you get 1 or 2 and it can actually happen. BUT, on that 30% it generate less opportunities (let's say 3), that don't mean he won't score, it's just about luck and he can score 1.

The same happens when possession is 55%-45%. Both teams generate 5 scoring opportunities from which they get a final result of 2-1.

Then a troll result can happen when you are unlucky and don't get goals with the opportunities you get out of your ball possession, while it generates a goal out of lower opponents opportunities.

Just my crazy idea, but to me it makes sense, because whatever you choose won't change the result. It can be just a ratio calculated over that. Much easier to program, makse sense, mostly fair, if you lose it's bad luck.

[Tyltyl]

Possession isn't a reliable stat to read the Game. More possession is never equal to more opportunities. Your scoring opportunity is dependent on the meter at the bottom of the screen in a live animation, the animation would never show your team attack if the meter isn't in your favor. This meter is more dependent on your formation and orders than it is on possession. For instance, if you set a defensive/ counter-attack strategy against a stronger opponent even if the opponent has 65% possession it doesn't matter, if the game engine favors your tactic over his own the animation will give you more scoring opportunities. A better stat to keep tabs on a live match is shots on target both for and against, and how many of those shots forced the goalie into making a save

Maybe I wasn't clear enough, but opportunities come exaclty out of that and I partially agree with you except for one thing.
I always play defensive and counter attack and I have a lot of possession in my favor everytime, but when I played against this team which is weaker, he got a lot of bonus possession out of friends watching up to +15% in his favor (at my home with me watching!). It was enough for him to get 55% possession, 7 shots and 4 goals.

[USARABAT]

you guys should really read this http://www.iaees.org/publications/jo...er-matches.pdf

it only gives you a small idea about the programming of online soccer games ...

there is much more complicated algorithm than what you can imagine...

I lost yesterday against a weaker team , i had 15 % bonus ... he wasn't watching ....

I don't believe in what's so called "troll results" ... I believe math and physics algorithm ...

once you and I guys learn more of how the programmers wrote the equations (Secrets) , more we avoid surprise defeats and do better ...

[khris]

The algorithm gives Khris the reason. lol

[Spartan117]

Maybe I wasn't clear enough, but opportunities come exaclty out of that and I partially agree with you except for one thing.
I always play defensive and counter attack and I have a lot of possession in my favor everytime, but when I played against this team which is weaker, he got a lot of bonus possession out of friends watching up to +15% in his favor (at my home with me watching!). It was enough for him to get 55% possession, 7 shots and 4 goals.

My point is that he didn't score more goals and get more opportunities because he had more possession than you, it was because the game engine favoured his tactics and formation among several other factors over your own. Like I said before shots on target and number of saves is the most reliable stat to use definitely not possession.

[HairDryer]

The truth is we dont know what we doing wrong or right. There is so many factor in this game where we can blame morale condition formation tactic bonus training so on and so on. Each have their own perception or believe what work and what not.
For me is quality 9* team will have 99% winning against 7* and below with right formation( not tanking). 1% troll which can happen once in a while. You can put aside morale condition bonus and not watching or watching which is all cosmetic.
So quality is the main factor in calculating the result and have all the advantage.

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[USARABAT]

also experience is a factor ( more number of games )

[KenoticFC]

There is no tactics or anything you can do to stop a troll result from happening in a live match. Over the seasons I payed attention to this matches and there is a case for predetermination here. The live animation goals for example, when there is a counter-attack and your players starts moving faster toward the goal 95% of the time there is a goal, the other 5% it is a clear indication of a ''bad day'' and the match will go against you, a draw or a loss. The other animation to pay attention that results mostly in a goal is when the corner shot finds your player and he hits the ball, usually there is a goal, every time my players miss this clear opportunities it is a sign that the match is going against me.