Quote Originally Posted by Tyltyl View Post
Many seasons ago I lost a cup semifinal to a weaker team, on full condition and full morale (Nordeus confirmed that preparation is just cosmetic), using a counter formation, a winning bonus and watching the game.
Apparently it wasn't enough to win.

- If the preparation is just cosmetic, you can just forget it, it won't matter towards the result, right?
- Ok, try using a counter formation, but you still lose. So this doesn't matter, maybe it's something else.
- Maybe it's the tactics? Whatever you use, you won't see a result on screen, because the simulation doesn't reflect the real game, so you don't know what the **** you are actually doing.
- Many people lose against weaker teams, so quality isn't the only important part, I guess.
- Maybe it's a mix of everything? Yeah, maybe, but if we look again about my example above none of this mattered.

I would say it's a mix of numbers mashed together, but in a retarded way
I only use 1 formation, maybe I mix it up a little sometimes, always on defensive and high pressing and usually I win everytime except a few time when the games decides to **** you.

But here's my take:
Whatever you do it doesn't really matter. Probably possession is the only thing that actually works and is active towards the result, because you can see a change in it when you make a change in the formation and in the passing style. It's also more linked to shots on target than we think and it's what generates the final results in a very simplicistic way.
Sometimes troll results happen when your opponents has low possession but still scores, maybe the engine calculates a ratio over this percentage because they don't want to make it too unfair and still give an opportunity to a weaker team.
Example: more possession = more scoring opportunity (which is fair and realistic), but it gives a chance to the team with a lower possesion in order to compensate.

A few days ago I lost against a weaker team, 2nd in my league because he had a lot of friends watching, I lost all my bonus possession and he won 4-1. In the first leg I won 1-2 the same way. He had a lot more possession, so the game showed only his plays, except a few opportunities where I scored and also maybe balanced to my quality.
I also explains why I keep winning with the same formation, because it works well with high possession. The only games I lost this season (3) where because posession was in favor of my opponent (lost 4-1) or actually more balanced (lost 2-1 both times).
Possession isn't a reliable stat to read the Game. More possession is never equal to more opportunities. Your scoring opportunity is dependent on the meter at the bottom of the screen in a live animation, the animation would never show your team attack if the meter isn't in your favor. This meter is more dependent on your formation and orders than it is on possession. For instance, if you set a defensive/ counter-attack strategy against a stronger opponent even if the opponent has 65% possession it doesn't matter, if the game engine favors your tactic over his own the animation will give you more scoring opportunities. A better stat to keep tabs on a live match is shots on target both for and against, and how many of those shots forced the goalie into making a save