The result of each game : is it mathematical or just random ?

[Tyltyl]

Many seasons ago I lost a cup semifinal to a weaker team, on full condition and full morale (Nordeus confirmed that preparation is just cosmetic), using a counter formation, a winning bonus and watching the game.
Apparently it wasn't enough to win.

- If the preparation is just cosmetic, you can just forget it, it won't matter towards the result, right?
- Ok, try using a counter formation, but you still lose. So this doesn't matter, maybe it's something else.
- Maybe it's the tactics? Whatever you use, you won't see a result on screen, because the simulation doesn't reflect the real game, so you don't know what the **** you are actually doing.
- Many people lose against weaker teams, so quality isn't the only important part, I guess.
- Maybe it's a mix of everything? Yeah, maybe, but if we look again about my example above none of this mattered.

I would say it's a mix of numbers mashed together, but in a retarded way
I only use 1 formation, maybe I mix it up a little sometimes, always on defensive and high pressing and usually I win everytime except a few time when the games decides to **** you.

But here's my take:
Whatever you do it doesn't really matter. Probably possession is the only thing that actually works and is active towards the result, because you can see a change in it when you make a change in the formation and in the passing style. It's also more linked to shots on target than we think and it's what generates the final results in a very simplicistic way.
Sometimes troll results happen when your opponents has low possession but still scores, maybe the engine calculates a ratio over this percentage because they don't want to make it too unfair and still give an opportunity to a weaker team.
Example: more possession = more scoring opportunity (which is fair and realistic), but it gives a chance to the team with a lower possesion in order to compensate.

A few days ago I lost against a weaker team, 2nd in my league because he had a lot of friends watching, I lost all my bonus possession and he won 4-1. In the first leg I won 1-2 the same way. He had a lot more possession, so the game showed only his plays, except a few opportunities where I scored and also maybe balanced to my quality.
I also explains why I keep winning with the same formation, because it works well with high possession. The only games I lost this season (3) where because posession was in favor of my opponent (lost 4-1) or actually more balanced (lost 2-1 both times).