I believe a lot of counter formations are a hoax, you need to factor in the game engine as well. If you have a game engine who is having a bad day, even a 7* team will struggle against a 2* team, no matter what formation is used
you need to factor difference in strength, as i can beat a team even with a wrong formation just bcz am the better side, and another key factor is if he watch his matches or not, home or away, 8%-13% extra on domination is alot to be considered