If your starting tactic doesnt work, add 2 defensive arrows to DCs and DMC, change to High Pressure+Mat to Man, and first of all test the focuss passing paying attention at the instantanely changes that the bar will have once you switch this option. Too you can test for just few seconds, as this is reactive, if Hard Defending gives you more chances or maybe the attacking mentality, The bar reacts after few seconds too increasing your possession slightly if it is the right option. If you lose possession after any tactical change, just go back to the previous setting.

For effectivity, if the scenario starts arround the minute 20' giving the 100% effectivity of shooting or similar to the opponent, you'll need to concentrate and simplify the attack power, so, in thie case once you find the right side -left, center, right) you can eliminate 1 side -ex, left- and keep only 2 + try to bring more players in that zone, like a DR with attacking arrow, add a MC as 2nd amc etc.
Remember that a substitution can unlock your chances too, and that another option to unlock a goal would be play with 1 winger and x2 STs, even if you're controlling the game and what you need is effectivity you could move 1 DL/DR as ML/MR to puch more people in the attack list.
So you have few options.
Good luck.