Guide: Understanding the 2016 Training System

[Nudo74]

Wow Al, this is a great thread. Exceptional analytic skills there. I like the thought process and thanks for sharing it with us.


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[Al Svanberg]

Hi guys!

I ran a new research session. This time I am trying to understand the importance of the highlighted ability and I trained two 18 y/o DC/DMC/MC players (5 stars) in 12 sessions with these drills:


A player with the roles DC, DMC and MC has FINISHING and CROSSING as grey/non-highlighted abilities, so with these drills those abilities constitutes app. 20.6% of the total session. A good impact should be seen on the result of those abilities.

Since I trained 2 players 12 times, the data is based on 24 sessions which is decent. But 2x12 gives a bigger margin for error than 1x24, so it wasn't optimal.

First when I looked at the numbers I thought my approach was flawed. I had not previously benched marked the kids to find out what their Training-Efficiency Factor (TEF) was while only training highlighted abilities, hence if the overall gain was less with this session than with a session with only highlighted abilities -- which I expected it to be! -- the negative deviation ratio for the grey abilities would be a bit off since they where based on a number of total gain instead of what the gain would be with only highlighted abilities. LOL, I am tired and I can imagine that how I put this sounds more complicated than it is. I hope you can follow me anyway!

BUT instead I think I made a somewhat interesting discovery. Here are the numbers:



What I noticed after a while of looking at the numbers was that while grey abilities were lower, the numbers that were up an abnorm amount -- was the other abilities trained in the same drill -- Fast Counter Attack -- IE, Passing and Creativity!

So it does not seem like the total effect of a drill that covers say 50% highlighted abilities and 50% grey abilities on one player is less than if the same drill was run on a player on which it covered 100% highlighted abilities, the gains will just be divided differently.

For example, lets say we run a large number of Fast Counter Attack drills (this drill improves Creativity, Crossing, Finishing and Passing) on a AMR (Creativity, Crossing, Finishing and Passing are all highlighted on a AMR), we could get the following result (plus minus only a few percent):
Creativity +50%
Crossing +50%
Finishing +50%
Passing +50%

But if we instead runs the same amount of drills on a MC (Only Creativity and Passing are highlighted while Crossing and Finnsihing are grey). we should roughly get the following result:
Creativity +75%
Crossing +25%
Finishing +25%
Passing +75%

What do you guys think about this? Does it make sense?

I will think about it until tomorrow and then update the guide accordingly unless a nights sleep and/or the input from you guys makes me think otherwise!

Lastly, notice how the previously spotted bigger gain in conditioning and lower gain in aggressiveness is -- not -- present. This is confusing me. It was so consistent in the large number of drills, with different mix of sessions etc, I ran before. Could be within the margin of error, but more testing certainly must be made. There can be a lot of different explanations to this...

[LeManiaque]

Brilliant. Very, very practical results, Al!

[Rautz]

It makes sense if you also think that the individual attributes don't matter as much as the total %
Otherwise you could just manipulate the training to gain a lot of Finishing for example and not much of the others.

Good job Al !

[Al Svanberg]

Further to the test I ran above on two players for Al FC, I ran the exact same test for more or less an identical kid on HFF. 18 y/o, DC/DMC/MC, but he was just over 6 stars when I started. The result was more or less identical to the previous test, this time I got a bigger sample size (35 sessions).

Here are the numbers:


The result are exactly the same as above.

1. No other ability than those covered by Fast Counter Attack differs more than 1 from.

2. The gain in gray abilities are 30% lower than expected, to an equal extent, the other abilities in the drill that covers the grey abilities are higher.

3. There is -- NO -- higher increase in conditioning, and -- NO -- lower increase in aggression. Why is this? I am totally confused about this lol. Edit: Ok, looks like there are some errors in the previous tables I made. Will look into it later tonight and fix the tables!! Ops Result: There is no deviation in Conditioning/aggressiveness in any of the tests I have made. This error comes from the impact of the Slalom Dribble Drill on Fitness being booked on Aggressiveness instead of Fitness...

[Al Svanberg]

Hi guys, I have made several changes to the Guide in the OP and fixed the error I spotted.

[Al Svanberg]

And another test. This time I pushed a fast trainer MC (only) I picked up this season towards 8 stars, ie all development was made in the 7 star range.

I ran this session 32 times:



Since its a bit bigger sample size I will publish the results per session too in this one:



And this breaks down the result:



This practice run shows more good data on how the grey abilities affect the impact of a drill and how the gain is redistributed. The grey abilities are down about a third, and in principle the non-grey abilities -- in the same drill as the grey abilities -- gets the gain instead.

[Al Svanberg]

Another test, this time a short sample when I pushed my 7 star 20 y/o attacker to 8 stars:

Ran this session 12 times:


Got these results, the sample size was so small that it didn't really provide any good data on how much effect grey abilities have on the development and how the gain is redistributed.

[Al Svanberg]

I am building a TEF table in the guide in the first post, this is how far I have come so far:


I think its a bit interesting that a 18 y/o Fast-trainer as a 7 star has the same TEF as a 20 y/o Fast-trainer. I expected the TEF to drop more with age, but it seems to stay the same until at least 21 y/o. But I will check this next season. Maybe it even stays the same until 22 y/o?

Do anyone have any questions on the TEF table? The first TEF number, like 0.28 for an 18 y/o 4 star fast trainer, is cleared from any impact of training levels. IE, its the TEF this kid would get if you only used level 1 drills. Then on the same drill I have just adjusted that number for Lvl 2/3/4 drills. Then follows the result of the TEF when adding a Special Ability (50 points) or New Position, I have based this number on having lvl 4 drills. They are easily adjustable. The formula is ((50*4)/TEF)/15. The last column is the cost in Rests to add 20%, to go from in this example 4 stars and 60% to 5 stars and 80%. This formula is also based on lvl 4 drills and can be adjusted in accordance with this ((20*15)/TEF)/15.

I have sent out my spreadsheet to a few people, if anyone have done any crunching themselves, they are welcome to chip in with some numbers to this table! (and as I have said before, if anyone want to get a copy of the excel-sheet I am using, drop me a note and I will mail it to you!)

[Bugeera]

Hi folks, I m curious what is top level of training now among Managers? I'm personaly at lvl 42 and have maxed first attacking practise. How about others?