You are all kidding yourselves if you think formation has that much influence on match results. I've played 2 strikers, 2 attacking wingers, three MC, and three Ds all season. I made it to the cup quarters, won the champions league and second in the league.

If I had to guess, I would say that match results are based on 70% player quality, 20% randomness, 5% game tactics and 5% team formation.