Understanding role of Luck in top eleven

[Berlitz]

If people wanted to play blackgammon, they wouldn't be playing a football simulator.

From what people have been saying on this forum (i.e. the complaints), people don't expect Top Eleven to be like chess.

Players expect (A) Top Eleven to be a realistic simulator, (B) slightly smaller teams to overcome stronger teams from time to time based on luck and tactics, (C) victory 95% of the time significantly weaker teams after they have put in time and energy to improve their squad.

Players don't expect (A) good teams to play terribly because the game decided that it would, (B) top flight GK not being able to catch a ball during the game while a 3rd tier GK becomes quasi invincible, (C) inexplicable results to occur between 3-5 times a season, and (D) weak teams to suddenly be able to defeat them no matter what changes they make during the game.

If Top Eleven made it so that players rarely lost against teams 25%+ weaker than them, half the complaints would disappear. Until then, players feel cheated and they are very much in the right to complain because they have been advertised a football simulator and receiving a re-furbished game of chance.

[Ludo_Mansio]

If people wanted to play blackgammon, they wouldn't be playing a football simulator.

From what people have been saying on this forum (i.e. the complaints), people don't expect Top Eleven to be like chess.

Players expect (A) Top Eleven to be a realistic simulator,

So I took the backgammon reference as a useful comparison to show what type of game Top Eleven is, I don't think anyone was suggesting you're actually playing backgammon!

Top Eleven is definitely not a realistic simulator. I don't think it's even advertised as a simulator? If you want something close to a football simulation you should be playing Football Manager, not a free-to-play game that you only really need to spend 30 minutes per day on. So you may be right that people expect a realistic simulator... but they really shouldn't!

(B) slightly smaller teams to overcome stronger teams from time to time based on luck and tactics, (C) victory 95% of the time significantly weaker teams after they have put in time and energy to improve their squad.

This matches my experience of the game. I occasionally lose to teams I don't expect to, but the majority of the time I beat teams that are significantly weaker. I don't agree with the 95%, I'd estimate that it's probably about 80-90% at present, which seems about right to me.

Players don't expect (A) good teams to play terribly because the game decided that it would, (B) top flight GK not being able to catch a ball during the game while a 3rd tier GK becomes quasi invincible, (C) inexplicable results to occur between 3-5 times a season, and (D) weak teams to suddenly be able to defeat them no matter what changes they make during the game.

If Top Eleven made it so that players rarely lost against teams 25%+ weaker than them, half the complaints would disappear. Until then, players feel cheated and they are very much in the right to complain because they have been advertised a football simulator and receiving a re-furbished game of chance.

In terms of how we lose, the game has to come up with some sort of 'explanation' for each match result. I've no doubt Nordeus could do better in this respect, but at the moment one of the ways the game justifies a loss is a poor performance from the goalkeeper. The animations and the player ratings are just a way of representing the outcome of the game engine calculations, as such sometimes they might be a bit unrealistic. Personally, I think most matches should be watched looking at the statistics tab as that's likely to be a closer representation of what's actually coming out of the calculations.

I've been playing for a couple of years now and I find that over the course of a season I get the results that my team deserves (without spending real money). I generally do well in the league and win the Cup or CL every now and then. I suspect most players on this forum are in a similar position. I try to ignore the odd random result that comes with any game involving luck and enjoy my longer term successes