This is the part that I can't understand you. You keep saying how things don't make sense, losing to a worse team, too many injuries, etc. What are you basing this on if not real life? Do you not want this game to be as realistic as possible? Do you want it to be unrealistic instead?
I play another game on facebook, it's basketball. It gives you a percentage of win before the game. Sometimes it's 96-4 and you end up losing. It's not often. I only play opponents that have less than 10% of beating me. Why? Because I get points (equivalent to tokens on this game) for a win. Out of 3,000 games, my win ratio is 89.5%. To me, the game is spot on in that regard. People complain their too. How is it possible that I lost?? Well, chances are you will lose 4-5 times out of 100. And you better be sure you will not be posting on forums when you win a game like that, only when you lose. Why? Because people like to complain.