Kind of agree with that to a degree. If I'm struggling in a game I try to tweak things in order to take control of the game. I'd say more often than not the little changes do tend to make a change, for good and bad at times.
Agree with the over managing too - was pissing a cup tie 2-0 and battering the opponent, with about 20 minutes left I put a midfielder on for a striker thinking I would just consolidate the 2-0 lead. The opponent who barely had any chances pulled it back to 2-2. Now this may indeed have been pre-determined, but I noticed that as soon as I went more negative the opponent came into the game more.
I'm as sceptical as they come when it comes to thinking Nordeus are just a big conspiracy intent on getting our money but I think the game engine mainly works on the basis of certain players/formations/tactics all being in place. I think that it has a pre-determined outcome for various scenarios.
Some examples (in my head) of this could be for instance - If neither manager is present and a certain team plays 4-4-2 for example it'll be 3-2 to the home side. Whereas if one sides manager is present and he decides to change to 4-3-3 then it'll be 3-1.
Little things such as that I think all make a difference.
Although I do beleive trolls still occur from time to time