You'd need counterfactual events.
And even worse, since a small tree of fixed outcomes is calculated by RGN in the 3 minutes before game with an odds system, you can get different results with the same team and actions.
Actually it has happened in server crashes. There were people who won games here and upon server reset they lost the same game.
Meaning you'd need at least 10 repetition of each game with arrows and 10 games with no arrows, throughout many seasons.