and what we should learn from this nik??? that game change the luck to whoever he wants? and if it turns against you there's nothing you can do against it? is this fair?
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and what we should learn from this nik??? that game change the luck to whoever he wants? and if it turns against you there's nothing you can do against it? is this fair?
You know I was just thinking something similar. Was asking myself if I should have killed my streak before the cup final so the probability of the system issuing me a loss would be lower. I think it makes sense.Quote:
Originally Posted by nikolgiorgos
In 80% of my games I 'm playing vs teams which don't have a present manager.Quote:
Originally Posted by funker
So actually I 'm playing vs the AI of the game, not some opponent.
The AI of the game is trying to beat you (at least the good and more active managers - the other don't care - lol)
Why ?
Because for two basic reasons.
- One is to make you say ok, I move on, next season I 'll be more active in auctions, maybe buy a scout or a recommended, spend more tokens to build a better team and farm more packs to improve more my team or in generals I 'll spend more time in the game (for example watching more games, make more friends-supporters).
- The second reason is that the games is trying to create challenges for you (and in depth of time, trying to get you addicted to that).
If you could read and follow some guides, spending few tokens and using the packs you are saving and getting a treble every season
then after some seasons you could say "Ok, I 've done with that. I 'm good, I won everything, there is no reason to continue playing anymore. I mastered the game and now I 'll try something else".
But you know, all those people who are moaning, they are not leaving.
It's like the casino players who are keep loosing but they return every time believing that next time they will be better or the luck will be on their side.
What I 'm trying to do is to decode the Luck part of the game, first for my mental health (so to convince myself that I 'm not a bad manager - lol)
and then try to "fool" the system if I can.
For the previous post/case for example, next time if I could have the chance (I couldn't) playing at home, I would change the time of League game, after my Cup final.
So yesterday where I had a "bad day" result, a draw in CL, the game AI wouldn't give me a second bad day game in a row ;)
Great post Nik, I agree with everything in there.Quote:
Originally Posted by nikolgiorgos
I do think there are patterns in the game that we can use to predict future results and take actions to increase our chances of winning. However, as with all chance based games we're not going to get 100% certainty over what is going to happen (or even close to 100%); there's a heavy element of the game that is random (by design).
It's hard, but would be good if we could start testing an approach. I think it should be based on deliberately losing the league game before a big Cup or CL game, i.e. tanking for one game. Then go in to your important Cup or CL game with your best team. It's something I've done previously and I think it's been successful, but it's hard to tell with such a small sample size.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nikolgiorgos
Well, that's exactly the point
i can't believe what we came up to just to overcome the game engine that is totally broken... i understand what are you saying... but i think you also got my point (with fixed cup finals). so if i win all the games until the cup final (and the luck was on my side until now, as you say) should i expect to lose the cup, just because the luck is changing? and i can't do anything about that...i should just sit back and enjoy the rape :)))))) that's nice, exactly what we all expect from this game :)))))
the only trick that i saw working so far is to put reserves on, lower the quality and don't enter the match... let the troll happen. but with my kind of luck, i put reserves and get humiliated 7-0 :))))))
@ funker
there are two roads
One is to say goodbye
The other is to continue playing and try to find how things are working and you can do about it.
Now, I forgot my bad performance in the Cup final and tried for the CL .
In the first semi final, I was playing vs a weaker team with no present manager and got only a draw. A fixed/bad day game.
pics here https://forum.topeleven.com/formatio...6-guide-5.html
#50
then the next day I played an easy League game (without watching) and won with the 2nd best score of my season.
My 3 attackers got a 10 and my "luck" exhausted there - lol
because I had a very bad performance in Cup final.
Today I had another easy game at League and after yesterday's bad performance maybe I could have a (useless) super performance in my easy League game.
And then maybe again a bad performance in 2nd leg of the CL semi-final.
So I changed the time of my League match after the CL .
I played the CL game in auto (I was out with friends), opponent was present this time but I won rather easily 3-1 even if oppo GK had 4 saves.
Attachment 124433
If you see that the presence of a manager is not an advantage always, then adopt and try to find how to use it.
Another trick I use (as many other old players) is to use a second account to watch the game and intervene if needs to.
Some times helps, others not.
I think everyone thinks that if they can understand the randomness, they can improve their team and ensure that they win more. Unfortunately, from my experience, it seems like some games are just scheduled for you to lose. I have noticed that if you win big in previous cup matches and champions league games, you inevitably get trolled. The complaint here, of course, is that you become powerless to actually do anything. The opponent has one midfielder and you have 3, but that is irrelevant, the opponent still dominates the field. The opponent has no tactics, it doesn't matter, your prove tactics are ineffective. Ultimately, there is a part of randomness in the game, which isn't bad in and of itself. However, when it makes much stronger teams lose inexplicably, then you know that the game is rubbish.
Maybe the system wants us (the managers) to bench sometimes our best players.....???
So the best player has the will to show to the manager he belongs in the team otherwise he not motvated because he always plays anyway.?
Well in real football happens, sometimes managers bench them during " easy matches " . I don't know if they try to replicate this behaviour in the game, but we need data to judge this , a indicator that say " look is better to let rest this player or next match will under perform " . Maybe we understimate the rating (form like 8-8-10-7-8 ) data. But is also true that there are players that play all the matches the entire season and give their best always. Still a mysteryQuote:
Originally Posted by maloukees
Guys, don't try to find any logic in the randomness and troll of this engine. I've told that many times - the result of each season is predetermined from the first day of the season - once the draw is completed the engine already knows when and on what stage you gonna lose and no matter what opponent there will be. As a result you can easily destroy opponent much stronger than you and lose to a team 80% weaker when the stats show clearly this result shouldn't have happened.
For example this season I easily won my cup final against +15% stronger active and present manager having destroyed him 7-1. At the same time check my semi-final in the champions league - inactive opponent, not present 56% lower than me. Absolutely the same formation with same orders in both matches
Attachment 124439
my 8-0 win looks absolutely logical under the circumstances, but how the hell he could get this second win 1-0 and additionally he had 2 more counter-attacks and 1 penalty - all 3 saved by my GK
If this were true (that everything is decided from the first day of the season) then tanking would be impossible, you'd just keep winning or losing as per the 'predetermined plan' regardless of what team you put out.Quote:
Originally Posted by a.gavrilin
So I don't think the game goes anywhere near this far in 'fixing' things. However, there is clearly a large amount of chance involved; there's a significant factor involved in determining the outcome of games which is random. Sometimes that random element works in our favour and sometimes it works against us. Because of the way our weird human brains work we generally have a tendency to focus on the negative ways it affects us and dismiss the positive.
So we can look to figure out those parts of the game engine that we can influence, but it's an almost impossible task when that random element is thrown in.
nik, i understand you're a moderator in here and you try to take the game's side as much as you can, but you realise how stupid your theory sounds? why on earth someone who didn't played this game so far, after he reads all comments in here, would like to start and play the game??? if you think something like rescheduling a match or watching from another account, or playing with substitutes should be the "new normal" in order to win a freakin' match, i'm sorry but for me it's too much and stupid at the same time. a new manager will continue losing without knowing that if he had watched the game from another account he actually won that match, or if he chose another time for the easier match?!?!?!?! does that make any sense? jesus christ
i've shown you so many examples of trolls and inexplicable results and most of the people still believe that it's the manager's fault somehow... now, if i lose a final against a weaker team team it's my fault because i didn't rescheduled the match before. come on, be serious, this game is dead. a month ago i posted a thread on associations discussion where i said many things about how everything is programmed there. with examples and other things. after 2 days was deleted. so i understand why people in here defend this game... just as an example: 2 seasons ago my association had almost 1800 points. and in just 2 seasons they made us lose every single weekend reaching the situation where this weekend we need 16 points to remain at platinum. and if we don't make them my theory is confirmed once again.
all these been said, i don't wanna be part in a game where you must do crazy things to win a simple match or you need the server on your side to win against some pathetic inactive associations.
so the answer to your options is simple, first road. goodbye!
You're pretty much spot on with all that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ludo_Mansio
I'll repost something I put up on another thread a while back I can't be bothered doing a huge long pot on the intricacies and probabilities but every single thing we do in this game has an effect, even minutely, but all that can be negated by the chance factor in 'the dice', which some like to call 'trolling' or 'pre determined'.
"The game engine is one gigantic set of dice rolls with every single action you do influencing, however slightly, the outcome.
And because it's all down to probabilities it means that there are no 'set' results just because one team is better than the other, but the chances of the better team winning are better then them losing.
I've played thousands, and I mean thousands, tens of thousands maybe, games of backgammon over the years and the similarities of outcome to this game are quite striking when analysing that many dice rolls.
There have been 'impossible' runs of scores, and many times I've questioned the 'bad luck', but funnily enough we never question the 'good luck'.
And that is with a pair of dice with no random factors or influence.
Imagine this game with hundreds of extra small permutations, each having a 0.01% effect on the probable outcome? Over a thousand games the better team will always win the majority, but over 10 games say then these odds are drastically reduced, and in a one-to-one there's about a 20% chance of an upset unless the teams are way different.
Troll results are just the lesser probability happening, but it will happen.
Even today in the Cup, I was 4-2 down from the first leg, playing at home 1-1 with 10 mins to go and opponent got a player sent off, I scored from the free kick and then got a goal in the 89th minute and went through on away goals.
Now did I troll him, or did the dice just run favourably?"
no, that's not a factor.Quote:
Originally Posted by maloukees
I had friends who won trebles using only 11-12 good players (for example @madflo and @Pricop Catalin).
But sometimes what I do when I don't want to sub any player, is to move a little one player in his box and tab the V button (so the engine can see that I change something, I 'm present and active).
So all those years I have bought and train players after day 1, I would win my doubles and trebles without buying them.Quote:
Originally Posted by a.gavrilin
damn
:p
ExactlyQuote:
Originally Posted by gogs67
I have written many times this.
TE is like the backgammon game . Roll dice is critical, as skills, experience, right decisions too.
An amateur who learned the game yesterday, in one match can destroy the world master.
But he 'll never win the championship.
Unfortunately very few know and play this game to find the similarities (it's also about if you 're playing aggressively or not).
@ funker
ok, we disagree.Quote:
....so the answer to your options is simple, first road. goodbye!
Nothing I can do.
Just to play my CL final tomorrow and support 32 friends who have CL/SL finals too
Attachment 124461
32 of 81 friends, some of them are also my accounts, some friends that are not active anymore, me and Mourinho so it's half of my list :p
Attachment 124463
Obviously the wheel of fortune turning,dice throwing backgammon playing troll monster is doing it best to disrupt me trying to win the league,why is then if your 12 points clear with 3 matches to go you never get stupid results,yet be 5 points clear with 2 games to go and you draw and 2nd place gets a chance of title by winning their game,this happens almost every season to everyone not just me
I can well recall being in 5th place one season with 5 games to go having never once been in top 4 all season only to watch all teams above either draw or lose or in the case of team at top not win a single game, gave me with combination of all the results by oppos over the 5 games the title to me
another season 2 sides way better than anyone in league run away leaders all season swapping 1/2 all season having 10 pts lead over 3rd place till yet again game AI decides no its not having that and final 5 games neither won lead dried up over 3 and 4 place teams but the very last game they had to play each other so the season boiled down really just to one game in the whole season for title and you cant say me that wasn't scripted
Some times it's scripted but you must find a way to read the script and change it.
for example - let's continue with my previous story
(I added the recent days in the previous schedule)
- Yesterday I played vs may main competitor in the League. tough game, I won 0-2
- Then someone (I don't know) arranged a friendly through asso
- I played a league game vs an easy team without watching and won 10-0 with a great performance (good roll-dive, luck)
- After that I had an asso game so there was something like a reset in my previous good roll-dice/ performance
- And had again a great game in my CL final.
Ok, I was 120% and opponent 95% but still this score 7-0, is too much - specially vs a present manager.
Attachment 124479
check now what happened to my Cup opponent from previous posts, Dinamo .
He played in the Super League vs an opponent Gabon, with 94% (-30% less q) and lost
Don't know exactly his program but looks that his luck changed this time
Attachment 124481
Attachment 124483
Attachment 124485
Too bad this didn't happen in our Cup final but at least I will have much better chances for the Super Cup tomorrow :o
and look yet again GK lowest ratings :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by nikolgiorgos
Maybe his mistake was the sub at 68'.Quote:
Originally Posted by nikolgiorgos
I had a CL final today and before the game I was 99% sure that I will win (I wrote that in the Greek forum).
Why ?
Because the roll dice (the waveform of post #1) would favor me.
I had +10% quality from my oppo, PARTIZAN.
PARTIZAN won in semi-finals a team with quality same as mine. Two wins.
Attachment 125991
But in the send leg, his GK was the man of the match.
Attachment 125993
And today, I had a game in FA where my oppo won and his GK was the motm.
Attachment 125995
So in today's final, even if I conceded an early goal and my players (specially the defenders) started with terrible rates, I scored 3.
(so I risked a sub to get the green - and concede a goal at last min :p ).
Attachment 125997
Oppo GK had a very bad rate this time (0 saves, 75% s.e. for me)
Attachment 125999
* he must have bigger avg rate than my players :p
Ok, someone could say
wth, is this a managerial game or a slot machine ?
Well yes, the roll dice has a big role in TE. Bigger than we would like to be.
But still we can try to understand and manage in some part also the role of luck.
(Khris also have spot that trying some different method in another thread).
What I could do if for example in my asso game won and have my GK motm ?
hmm, maybe using my sub GK even if he has lower quality
or playing the game in auto/watching from another account I have
or playing a couple of friendlies with PARTIZAN (via associations) so to reset some counter or to confuse the game engine.
(this tip I gave to a friend and it worked in his final).
Congrats Nik, next time i need to send you my opponents form and previous matchups for your predictions. Haha kidding, i know you are a busy man. But are you not affected by the wave, i assume you were winning all the way as well? or because of your higher quality, the wave form affects him more having beaten someone of similar quality to you?Quote:
Originally Posted by nikolgiorgos
A +- 10% quality difference is meaningless (and you can see that when he won two times his oppo in semi-finals).
It's that the waveform, found his GK in the lower point and my GK was away from that.
well, all those above is just food for thought, but I have enough for my team :pQuote:
next time i need to send you my opponents form and previous matchups for your predictions.
You got me curious. Am gonna check for GK MOM and patterns in my cup and CL. I assume this waveform applies to all players but the GK is one position that will make a real difference in the match?Quote:
Originally Posted by nikolgiorgos
As I said in many other posts, it's the GK who 's expressing the role dice of the game . Not the other positions.
It's the alibi of the "Just wasn't to be" effect :o
Thanks for your analysis. But if you can predict the form of your GK, it should not be a role dice.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nikolgiorgos
No, it's not about the form of the GK.
The GK himself is the roll dice.
Saying thisI mean to tweak more the dice, change the flow. Not about the form.Quote:
maybe using my sub GK even if he has lower quality
Ok. That makes sense to me. Thank you.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nikolgiorgos
That started before about 1,5 year when the devs decided to reduce/eliminate the super domination scores (for realism :rolleyes: ).
When you played vs a very weak team or vs a tanking team (and there where a lot because of associations) the scores where 10-0 to 19-0.
So they tweak the game engine, presenting the super GKs (plus some few shots on target or 0-17% shot efficiency).
This thing affected also the "normal" games so after that, the role-dice/Luck of the game became no1 factor for the results, reducing a lot the effect of "right"/counter formations and orders.
Attachment 126129Quote:
Originally Posted by nikolgiorgos
no more experts hereQuote:
Originally Posted by khris
Everyone went to HEROIC :rolleyes:
Maybe we could find some Vietnamese :p
LMAO, you guys are funnyQuote:
Originally Posted by nikolgiorgos
My two semifinals.
Before those games I was facing two easy League opponents 40% quality.
In the first League game I didn't have good performance but had great stats in the Cup game later.
The opposite happened yesterday.
Super performance and stats in the league game but hardly won this time my Cup opponent.
Attachment 129015
This thing affected me a lot, i had easy league matches against tankers then poor perfonmances on important matches in the same day like cup or cl. From next season i will try to use reserves for matches vs tankers, but the problem come when you want the player win the top scorer challenge. So many things to take in consideration now during the season that can make the difference from winning titles or nothing.Quote:
Originally Posted by nikolgiorgos
This many times also happening in the serial of Cup or CL/SL knock out games.
It's useful to observe the two previous games of your opponent.
Was the luck favor on his side, against or neutral ?
Usually the "bad" luck doesn't strike twice.
We can understand the bad luck effect in a game, we recognize it (high ball possession but few shots, low shot efficiency, oppo GK with many saves, early injury or bookings).
So we can figure out what can expect in our between game.
And some times we 're trying to "manipulate" our luck.
Maybe using our week team in the first-easy game or make subs (even using a GK oop) to avoid a super domination or use 2 tokens to change the hour of our critical game if we can.
I don't know if setting a friendly can tweak the Luck flow.
But understanding the role of luck and the reactions of the game is so important as using the right tactics.
Luck flow ? yeah not so sure about this as a concept on its own. I find I dont get the trolly games good/bad luck flow thing as long as my players are within normal parameters ie the more mutant like they are the more the weird stuff happens. I have a team where no player has an ability over 90% in any category and results are as they should be , I beat who I SHOULD beat and get beaten by those that should beat me. Formation ,tactics etc dont seem to mean a great deal however so essentially game as a whole is now made for the LCD of player. No point trying to be your best , averagewill be just as good result wise.
