Understanding role of Luck in top eleven

[nikolgiorgos]

I had a CL final today and before the game I was 99% sure that I will win (I wrote that in the Greek forum).
Why ?
Because the roll dice (the waveform of post #1) would favor me.
I had +10% quality from my oppo, PARTIZAN.
PARTIZAN won in semi-finals a team with quality same as mine. Two wins.



But in the send leg, his GK was the man of the match.



And today, I had a game in FA where my oppo won and his GK was the motm.


So in today's final, even if I conceded an early goal and my players (specially the defenders) started with terrible rates, I scored 3.
(so I risked a sub to get the green - and concede a goal at last min ).



Oppo GK had a very bad rate this time (0 saves, 75% s.e. for me)


* he must have bigger avg rate than my players