Yes we can influence the match, time ago i played a important cl match at home , we played both attacking hard press and we had same quality( me 9% stronger ), but i draw 1-1 the match at home. While watching the match i noticed that he pressed better that me,and i asked my self, why? Then i noticed from the stats that he made more fouls than me ( like 15-8 ) so during the away match i switched to hard tackling (he was winning 1-0) and magic, he didn't touch the ball till the end and i won 1-4 , that means i really go easy on him at home and he was really aggressive. From there i started to take always a look at the number of fouls during matches, and other stats like pass.acc % and etc...

So yes , you can influence the match if you are a good observer