This has happened to me several times too. Just an example, i played against a weaker team where i had my players with 100% condition,moral and training and i lost. The following game i played against a tougher team and i forgot to prepare my team and the players had their condition in red but i still i won.
I have no doubt that game is scripted and works in a way that makes you want to waste money, just like all the "challenges" in the game.