Guide: How to make a budget on the cost to develop a player?

[Rautz]

So mapping the fitness loss and ability gain in games is definitely next on my agenda.

Over my limited sample size (4 matches and about 100 condition loss in training) I found no significant differences between condition loss during match or training.
Basically I think you can apply the same TEF and calculate for 48 lost condition daily (8 daily increases of 6%) and however much you want to use with rests

For me the single unknown is the TEF, that you can only find out for sure by waiting a few days or wasting a few rest packs.


Great guides, Al!

[nikolgiorgos]

So mapping the fitness loss and ability gain in games is definitely next on my agenda.

playing in old version :
A 5* fast trainer in 3 bars, practice match, is gaining about +100%/ 1sp (4 skills of new version) with -18% condition loss
In a game he 's gaining about + 130%/1,3 sp (about 5-6 skills of new version) with about 22-24 condition loss.

[Al Svanberg]

Just for fun, if we assume that the TEF is the same in games, like lvl 1 drill?, and a game takes 25% fitness, it basically breaks down to something like this for a fast trainer that we do not use any Rests on (and I am tired so need to think this through again tomorrow.... ):

-TEF for a 7 star FT (lets say this player has 120% ability in Day 1 of a season) -- 0.11

-Fitness ability recovery during a season -- 24 hours/day / 3 hours in between recovery * 6 % = 48%

-Fitness loss per game on avg -- 24%

-Games played during a season (app) -- 52 (its basically possible to play all games)

Total gain in Ability% a season = 52 games x 24 Fitness% * 0.11 = 137 Ability%

Total gain in total ability = 137 Ability% / 15 abilities = 9.1%

This would mean that it would take around 125 Rests to get that player to 140% and 8 stars on the last day of the season (age 18-21). Meaning that you can basically keep 6-7 players at 8 stars with a ambitious zero buying token budget if you do not power-train any players and use all rests on maintaining ability.

Another interesting conclusion is that its always better to rest a core player as much as possible and train him with lvl 4 drills instead. As a reference point, if all fitness recovery goes into lvl 4 drills instead of games -- ie 48% * 28 days = 1.344 -- the 7 star player would gain 1.344 * 0.14 =188 ability% or 188 / 15 = 12.5% in avg. ability instead. Interesting! Will look more at this tomorrow if I get time!

[Rautz]

If I had to guess, I think the match is equal to the lvl 4 training, not lvl 1 - this would also be true from Niko's numbers

Another point is that my players rarely lose 24% condition, more in the range of 18% - I think that's because I play them with low pressing, short passes, zonal marking.
So if you have a busy schedule, it's worth noting you can do stuff to lower their condition loss.

On the other hand, for the purpose of improving skills, if it's indeed equal to a lvl 4 training, maybe it's worth tiring them more, specially if you don't have access to lvl 4 drills (like me)

[Al Svanberg]

If I had to guess, I think the match is equal to the lvl 4 training, not lvl 1 - this would also be true from Niko's numbers

Another point is that my players rarely lose 24% condition, more in the range of 18% - I think that's because I play them with low pressing, short passes, zonal marking.
So if you have a busy schedule, it's worth noting you can do stuff to lower their condition loss.

On the other hand, for the purpose of improving skills, if it's indeed equal to a lvl 4 training, maybe it's worth tiring them more, specially if you don't have access to lvl 4 drills (like me)

Great insight Rautz! Thanks very much. All very very valid points. Need to sort things out to get a clear picture. There is a 30% difference between lvl 1 and lvl 4 drills, that has a very big input on the end result.

What also can have a big input for sure is like you say the condition loss, full bonuses, power trained fitness ability, only activate the 50% bonus bumper for conditioning, no hard pressure or man-man D. No arrows? Does arrows matter? Maybe you can save like 6-8% in conditioning per game. That is also a good 250-350 fitness% saved per player per season. Say that it is 300%, its like having 20 rests per player additionally each season.

In other words, we need to pin the numbers down!

[LeManiaque]

Presumably you've also considered that skill game in matches might be proportional to player match rating.
The match skill distribution may also not have the same grey/highlight factors. It could be dependent solely on what skills have come into factor for how you've engaged that player on match by match basis.

Look forward to Al's empirical data!

[Al Svanberg]

Presumably you've also considered that skill game in matches might be proportional to player match rating.
The match skill distribution may also not have the same grey/highlight factors. It could be dependent solely on what skills have come into factor for how you've engaged that player on match by match basis.

Look forward to Al's empirical data!

Hm, I always had this in the back of my head before, IE wanting good games to get good development. Score a lot, good development.

But I don't know now, it would be a very complicated process if that is the case. I actually wonder if this really is the case. Will keep it in the back of my head, but first start to see if it can be explained by a more simple process, like straight fitness loss*TEF....

What do you guys think? Does rating in game affect ability gain?

[Al Svanberg]

This is the first result of a basic study I did. Zero conclusions so far, only results.



To explain the table, the circled numbers are -- from the left -- the avg Fitness ability of my players, my Condition Bonus, the Avg. Condition Loss in the game and lastly the TEF in the game compared to the TEF had the same condition loss been put into LVL 4 Drills.

Understanding the Condition Loss in a Game

I did put quite a lot of thought into understanding the condition loss numbers, but I haven't really come close to anything. Thinking this can be pretty hard to figure out, but probably doable if we put some time into it. But it is a bit worrying that the actual numbers seem to vary as much as they do. Right? Like why do some players loose 22 and other 15? Like compare Daily's and Zinidizu's data, that diff is a bit worrying. But lets just keep working those numbers and see what comes out of it.

First of all, my initial assumption is that the Fitness Ability of a player affects how much conditioning he losses in a game. What do you guys think? This is not a given, but it would seem logical. How else would the fitness ability work? Well one alternative could for example be that a player with high fitness ability play better with low conditioning, but I don't really buy the logic behind that. But can't leave any stones unturned so I will try to look at this.

If it does, I think it works something like this. You have a starting point, a presumtive condition loss in a game. Lets call it X, for some reason I think X could be 24 but that is just a hunch. Then X is lowered and made higher by a bunch of factors, and at the end you get the actual condition loss in the game.

I don't really think there is much of a random factor in there, wasn't in training so why should it be one here? But for sure, there could be a lot of factors that are very hard/impossible to track (like does going down one flank affects the condition loss of the players on that flank? Maybe wing-backs always loose more fitness than a striker. Does the opponent's formation/order matter? Possession? Stuff like that). But I am not sure if there are that many factors that extremely hard to establish.

Further to this, the Condition Loss vary, but not 1:1 in relation to Fitness Ability. Like the Condition Loss for a player with 100% in Fitness Ability is not twice as high as the Condition Loss for a player with 200% in Fitness Ability. So there is some kind of artificial reduction of the impact of the Fitness Ability on the Condition Loss in this regard.

One thing I tried was like this (Formula is 24 (The starting point for the conditioning loss) minus 3 (artificial factor reducing the impact of the fitness ability) * Fitness ability = Condition Loss in a Game):
24-(3*1.75)=18.75

It was just one of the formulas that potentially could explain why my players lost the conditioning they did.

With a team with the avg Fitness ability of 200%, you would get:
24-(3*2)=18

With a team with the avg Fitness ability of 100%, you would get:
24-(3*1)=21

The math behind it could be a bit easier like this. Or it can be a lot more complicated. And of course other factors matters, but I do think/hope that some kind of raw fundamental math/pattern can be drawn from only looking at fitness ability and conditioning loss. But more data is a must.

With more factors it could be like:
24 - (3*1) * 1.1 (Hard Press) * 0.9 (Con.Bonus) = 21


I am definitely going to put a lot more time into getting a bigger sample size, because this is only from one game and any random factor could really throw you.

Also, if anyone have a account at hand with -- low -- avg fitness ability, preferbly down towards 100% or lower, 30-50% would be awesome, it would be very helpful if you can dump screen shots of the conditioning loss from a game. Two dumps like this, one right before and one right after the game:


Also, if anyone ever plays an association game with stacked conditioning bonus, it would be very interesting to see the results.

Understanding the TEF in Games

The TEF in this game certainly matched up very well to the TEF from a LVL 4 drill. But, with the filling up a container logic, the TEF in a single game can be very misleading. So need more numbers to establish this, but it looks promising.

[LeManiaque]

Great start Al, and does help (though not prove, of course) the match play ≈ level 4 idea. Win/loss end result, motivation, career matches, many things could factor in so the TEF in matches could also have tiers like amateur to world class drills.

[nikolgiorgos]

playing in old version :
A 5* fast trainer in 3 bars, practice match, is gaining about +100%/ 1sp (4 skills of new version) with -18% condition loss
In a game he 's gaining about + 130%/1,3 sp (about 5-6 skills of new version) with about 22-24 condition loss.

regarding to my post #12
- those values still exist today
- The only thing from the new version that affect, is the 4th lv drills and the condition bonus.
- Those numbers above, is the avg
- Except high pressing and man to man marking, none of the orders (hard defense, hard tackling, arrows) affect the condition loss
- Condition loss is different for every player after the game. There is also a roll dice but there is also a relation of condition loss with the performance of a player.
If a player performing good, he loose a little more condition than a bad performer. I was using this tip to find whom I 'm gonna sub during the game, when rates weren't available. If something wasn't working good in my center, I subbed the MC with less condition loss and after the game, I had the confirmation with his bad-mediocre rate.
- I still don't understand how condition bonus is working. Suppose that affects but a couple of times (vs low q teams) I tab only this during the match but after that some players still lost about 22% condition while others lost 18%. I think there isn't a fix X% value.
Anyway, I don't care much as I think it's the more useless (of the 4 bonus)
- and still believe that fitness skill is cosmetic