Welcome to TE Yen N Yik! You are lucky to have had your first troll in Season 5
My record is currently loosing to team 15 qualities below me 2-0 on 99% morale and condition.

From experience, player with higher quality doesn't always mean they will perform better; I have scout players who are constantly on 4-5 rating no matter which position they play within their radius.
And you might be surprise to see some 3*/4* are out-performing scouts and having 8-9 ratings every game. So this is probably why some still keep their old player.

I generally sell off all players with lower ratings (except scouts, can't find the courage to sell them), and I try to check their rating before bidding for the player.

Back to your match, i do find some counter formations works some times, and backfires at times. And if you are referring to July Forth's Counter Chart, that is probably slightly outdated.
If I have the time, what I do is check the historical matches of that opponent, to see what formation had he lost to.
And he had changed his formation, then I will check the all historical matches (league, CL, Cup) to see if the formation he used was beaten by another formation, checking that opponents stats as well.
If all fails (some counter formation won and lost at different games), then i will post it in the forum to seek help.

Hope this helps.