Very nice post, agree with most of it, BUT
Nobody, because of two simple things:
-) you don't know how the engine works (best example: watch a close/hard game with old version and livegame: livegames sometimes suggest you, opponent is attacking much, but at stats/old version, you don't see anything about that)
-) you don't get any information, if Nordeus change something or what they change.
I think about like this: what, if there's a timer of x days for every new player, where your team gives you randomious result?
-> I used 5 seasons the exactly same T11, 1. and 2. of this, I bought 1-2 new subs. 3-5 they were exactly the same 22, and this 3 seasons in a row, we won the triple. Last season, I bought 4 new players, but only one was very fast at T11 -> we lost cupfinal. Random?
Other example: Last season, at cupfinal, we played vs a formation, which I had a counterformation. This worked every time. Opponent didn't watch the game, my team was overall better (so counter worked again), but we lost! But why? Did the system want us to lose? Did thy made some changes, I first see at this game?
(I started that thread)
I'm one of this crazy guys, who tries to understand the game. I make excellists about my opponents/my used formations. I can tell you the results of ~300 games. The problem is: you don't know, what your opponent did (condition, moral, training bonusses, win price, tactic,...). At livegame (or old version) you can't imaging, what tactic your opponent uses. F.E. I played vs ~15% weaker team, played very defensive, counter off. Opponent watched. We won 11:1, had 32 shots. 4 goals were scored from counter. If you are the opponent, do you ever think, I played very defensive?
Another thing is: if you play vs unwatched team, they seem like better than watched. I think, that's on the AI, because the AI is the only thing, who knows, what you are doing and it reacts (or reacts faster than ever human). If I lose against a real person, it's okay, because they are there, they change, they try,...
but to lose against AI in the trolling way, it's only annyoing.
Conclusion:
Quote of matrix: They give us only the illusion of control.