An active 10-20% weaker team can win by 1 goal or more if the stronger opponent had many of the other factors against him. For example, if the opponent got a decent fraction of his tactics wrong and top of that he got a bad roll of the dice. That will be not be a troll as 20% quality advantage is not expected to overcome the bad effects of the other 2 factors.
Maybe the game is significantly more about luck these days as compared to 3-4 years ago, and hence why more unexpected results happen. They reduced the complexity in the calculation match outcomes maybe to reduce CPU and RAM loads on servers, and hence cut operating costs.


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