But thats a old personal experience that I've been sharing here since... 4 years ago¿?... when I bought a scout that I called Djibril Cissé, trained till 8* and scored just 3 goals xD so is not a exaggeration, is a real -sad- experience documented in it's moment lol
Is a matter of values assignation and calibrations of each team, and the game will create a specific scenario with what you have. You have 11 areas +gk where to put 11 players, if a specific player works as AMR/L as is often the case the "formation form" can be any with a aml-r, and if you play a team based in a 4-3-3 the game will create a scenario with particular roles, and will give protagonism to 1-2 players equally, so, when I say formation don't matter, I'm saying too that the game willl chose a scenario with options for you to play with what you have.
Then, yes, Ive defended this part too, in where I mention that is important to have a AvQ of the 11 better than the oppo, because first of all, the chances and win margin will stay in your favour, and then, the scenario and "simplification of contribution roles" toowill be in your favour, but remember, this simplification, that exists, has shown that:
-Your avQ can consist in players of for example, 1* x4 and 8* x7, and if the game chose as protagonists part of the 1*'s you can have a high avQ of +30 than the oppo, but due this technicism of simplification you can lose, and I think we see this here almost daily lol
And it doesn't matter the +30% avq or the formation in a case like this.
So this case, of teams with 1* and 8*'s show this variation in the scenario selection and show how the game don't work "facing" formations, but it uses another type of info that is not so "obvious".
And really, if we analyze the idea of a game facing formations, would be really crazy, and thats why the game allow your team to lose vs 2*'s without give you an option, because it don't faces formations, it choses particular scenarios and discard options.
Based always in the diff' of avq between both teams? yes. But more based in the AvQ and cinternal contribution roles that we don't see? of course, and I'll go more far away and say that probably when a season starts every team have a "path" y default, playing 5 years you can see so common how a team often loses vs a middle table team without xpect... so? "predetermined"? yes. Season path and match scenarios predetermined.