I did two proof with friendly matches.
Information:
In both cases, my team had full condition (99%), full morale (Superb) and total possession bonus +4% for home.
The difference of average quality is 42% (me 68% and opposite team 110%). And both friendly matches was did with same players and same formations.

Weather: Cold

+++ First friendly match +++
Team Mentality: Attacking
Passing style: Mixed
Pressing style: Low
Marking style: Zonal
Play Offside trap: On
Result: defeat, 0-4

In the second attempt, I changed only pressing style, from low to high.

+++ Second friendly match +++
Team Mentality: Attacking
Passing style: Mixed
Pressing style: HIGH
Marking style: Zonal
Play Offside trap: On
Result: defeat, 0-6


I supposed that pressing style doesn't affect the cold weather