Originally Posted by
Tactician
The probabilities of winning are unlikely to be the same or close to the same as the 'raw' probabilities for each competition. This will vary from server to server and batch to batch.
In my opinion, if a manager plays as he is expected to play, that is, no tanking, built a team capable of winning the all concerned competitions in the previous season, and no 'draw fooling' for the next season, the Cup is usually the most difficult to win the following season but also brings significantly more money as the team advances in the competition. But, this might vary from server to server, batch to batch and league to league (average level of the league, and opponents having the highest quality). A user who manages a team who plays in a league that 50-60% quality is enough to win it, will unlikely build a 6-star team or above, and hence, will probably have an easier Cup draw the following season. A user who is usually associated with a lower quality batch in the server (usually due to frequent poor quality, poor management and so on), will likely to have an easier Cup if he improve his team quality significantly at the start of one particular season after the cup draw. Of, course, his team will likely change batch in the following season.
The Cup can also be one of the easiest to win too, but in this case, it is unlikely that it will have good money prizes.
A user whose team has been among the lower qualities relative to the levels and leagues he has been involved with in the past seasons, will likely to have an easy Cup Competition next season. A user who just 'revived' an abandoned team will likely to have an easy Cup competition.
Generally, knockout competitions are more difficult to win because each round consists of only 2 matches as deciders, except the final, while the league consists of 28 matches counted as a whole for 'decider'. So, you cannot afford an error or a slip in knock-out competitions, and also the so called 'roll of the dice' if ever it is present in the game, will have a more significant effect, while in the league you can catch up, especially if it's in week 1-2. Also, in knock-out competitions, once you lost a round, the competition finished for your team for the particular season, independent of what the results of the next rounds will be, while in the league, its can be said that it is never finished until the last day or until the leading team has reached a certain amount of points.
In the higher levels, all competitions seem difficult to win, because the higher the level you go, the more likely you will meet a serious, challenging manager, and also more likely you will meet those 7-9 stars teams.