Lists are filled, depending on the players position, basically, and then depending on the internal domination power, they get more animation slots, or less, meaning that a player with high dominance power but low contributive power, can take 15 slots inside a live match just to miss, covering others cause his dominance power.
The game, will always do these 2 lists independently of the formation you use to play, even if you set a line as formation, the game needs this info to do the simulation.Then yellow alerts are 1% BP punishment and 2% punishment for the red, and basically, the engine needs to unlock animations, requiring a player in certain zone to score all alone or, a assistant in certain place to allow the goal.
And with "counters" I mean fixed counters, this is well proven after 11 years really... it would be so obvious if X win Y 70% of times... but as the internal roles are spread differently in each team, and each team have players with different Dominant Power, this determines the team playingstyle behaviour, and ofc. at some point depending on this config. it sets somehow a fixed requeriment that is needed to control the games, but there is a margin really... and 1-2 yellow alerts could even benefit you.
We have managers playing without STs, with 1* MCs in FAs... with 1DC and 5MCs/R/L--4AMC'S/R/L just earching for the right settings in each game and playing with the arrows, so, at some point, all this is way more simple than what it seems. The game doesnt have a super tactical simulator, just fills lists based in variations and pre-determined parameters, and yeah, you can affect them... when I manipulate ratings to obtain a push at certain match, thats what I do.