4-5-1 V, start defensive + counter attacks and see how it's going, can switch to attacking and take off counter attack if you are dominating chances and good on possession. I would use mixed passing via flanks to start and potentially switch to mixed if you can see that wingers are not getting through.
Just bear in mind that he can switch from 4 3w-3 to 4-3n-3 and that would be a solid counter to 4-5-1, so be ready to swap to 4-1(dmc)-4-1.
I had a very similar scenario recently in association match (at 107me - 108 opponent) and it worked out 3-1 in my favour (away game with less possession). The table on first page is still very good and works (for me anyway).
Good luck
p.s: I have also won important matches with 1-3 players having yellow or red triangles. In fact the less the better but nevertheless, I prefer to put a player out of his position (as long as it's very close to where he normally plays) than put a weaker player who hardly sees a game.