We're actually saying almost the same thing, and I agree with you. The game engine decides if it will be a tough match before it starts - to an extent this is exactly like real life when the team preparation before a game influences how they perform on the pitch and changing tactics or players during the game can have an impact, but if the flow of a game is against you probably not a huge impact
On the other point, sometimes a good team has an off day. Sometimes a good team has many off days. Arsenal in the EPL always have a better possession than the opposition, but they are a long way from winning the league. Man City have a more expensive squad and arguably better players on paper than Man Utd. Utd will win the league comfortably though.
At the other end of the table, QPR have spent more money than anyone this year and have excellent players. They are rock bottom and have been almost all season. Shows that you can't just throw money at a team (or tokens) and have guaranteed success
Perhaps with illegal formations, if you are going to bother having them they should almost always be beaten. Almost always. Not always. Just like you shouldn't always win if you have have 'better' players or tactics