Exact. And sack that ST of 8*s that only misses if needed.
Not exactly but this answers both questions. The -40's were not managed, just out of top 8 if I remember well many times, and nothing spectacular checking out players attributes, like some skills +240 or so...
But this occurs for the "variable of scenario", so, the more far away you are from the last loss, the more probable it is (even if it's in a low %).
So the game can chose a scenario, chosing X, Y Z orders as dominant ones to control the game (remember that the orders work individually, not faced VS the oppos settings, or these work, or do not) so, maybe you can have the right orders to control more or less the match but, your shooting success chances are set in "0" goals for you.
For more attendance, for more that you switch orders and you have the control, even doing subs', the balance can be directly closed for you. And you know pretty well that this happens to all managers time to time. Like "there's no way".
Still I believe that the game calibrates these stuffs with time of anticipation, setting some oppos as harder to beat, and I believe too that "if there's a reason for that weakness" one "can do something" to avoid that troll score, the problem is that you will never know if a player from your reseves would have been played better inside your main 11 having a effect of "ok, in this case the 11 main players, (st's mc's etc) are set to miss all chances, but, with the MC+ ST as reserves, your team value change and you'll win.
All is based in what we don't see.