Your first post is the reply to yourself-
"If the strongest player on the pitch (8-star, on fire) is under-performing 2 games in row, tell me:
1. Why I should waste money and resources to bring players to 8-star?
2. Why I should waste morale boosters to bring morale at max?"
Here there are different points to cover, the first is, that a player have to be predetermined by default to be successful.
Despite all, you can win by margin, of course. But you can differentiate a player well programmed by default from a bad programmed for the fluency that your team have when is playing.
Another point is, the beatability margin of your oppos, of course, if you push a player, he'll gain distance in the simulation, but this has nuances.
How many times we've seen upsellers with 340%s in skills complaining because their "investment" doesnt work as expected? like, finishing 340% and barely the player scores?
Too we have to consider that, by definition, as the engine only simulates the attacking playstyle, this will always link players to fill the lists and bring animations, with the corresponding variables, and these variables will create alternation when determining which player solves a match.
You can perfectly notice when you have a squad that plays fluidly or, when it seems stuck.
It is a deep science in realitym and IMO these overall rating you shared are nice, but, to understand the team situation more in detail, and the reason why the players may underperform at certain games, or why some times the score can seems stuck to 0 etc.. this is a very general analysis and will not help you. At least it didn't...