My theory of this game.
(A)The game engine calculate the match 3 minutes before the start. Base on Team/player quality, tactic and formation. The engine will try to match and balance both team to have some realistic result.But ofcoz higher quality with advantage. Troll happened when somehow the engine calculate and produce negative outcome. I base this on matches i played against equal, higher and low quality oppo.
Etc. 1)I played match with equal quality score 2,3 or 4goals wining margin.
2)against lower quality we can win big max 8,9 or 10 maybe more. But why in some occassion we score less and sometime non.(In a sure win game).
3)against higher quality score win/lose 1or 2 goal margin and troll to higher quality team sometime.
The first calculation of balancing and determine the outcome.

(B)In the process of the game the engine calculate the (possession)watching/not watching plus fans and also rating on player to give some hints. Advantage to more possession team with opportunity on goal. Less advantage team to seize the waste opportunity. This is where your manager expertise come to play when reading the game. (changing tactics/formation and making sub.)
*Although sometime the engine just not working😊.Note Am comment and statistic is useless thats what i think.

C)Luck. (Roll Dice).

So (A) The engine already make the culculation and determine the outcome.(due to change)
(B)There is still small space for you to change the outcome. There still chance!
(C)Nothing you can do or you try but no respond.

Hey this is just my view and thought it can be wrong. Share your virw.