Understanding role of Luck in top eleven

[nash123]

Here is the second game against the 43% weaker opponent (1st ended 0:0 - screenshots here)




I changed nothing compared to the first match against him!!!!
Don't you think, this is too strange? Too much random factor?

Tomorrow I play in League vs my wife... I'm really excited about the (random) result.

[nikolgiorgos]

Too much random factor?

yes, that what I wrote in the first post
"Luck" is one of the major factor.
But it's not why I started this thread.
I just try to "explore" the "forms" of luck in the game and to recognize when some results come from "luck" and when it comes from our mistakes or other factors.

[nikolgiorgos]

The book

Another form of luck the game can have, is like some books.
I like very much books with fantasy (from writers like Tolkien, George Martin, Salvatore) , or Myth-History (writers like Valerio Manfredi, Steven Pressfield).
Some of them inspired Dungeons and Dragons (Icewind – Forgotten realms) cards- roll dice and later pc games.
There are also some books-games inspired from them.
Like this one.




You start reading the book as a story. Then you choose some options-paths, having battles against creatures-enemies with the roll dice (or sometimes you choose to run away) and finally you take the girl and save the world or you ‘re lay dead in some dungeon.

Using your abilities (team-players), taking decisions (formation-orders-others), giving fights (matches) with a roll-dice , in some top eleven scenarios.
In the book, there are some hints (key words), what is the right path to choose, so with some descent roll dice, you finish the book-game.
As I read-played the book more than once, I noticed that there is a point where taking a wrong decision and having a bad roll dice, in the end I ‘m finishing in the dragon’s lair where I just die there – lol.

Some times, top eleven it’s like this.
After the beginning of a game, having a bad start, whatever I do it just ends with a defeat (or not winning a very easy opponent).
This way of reading the book and playing, reminds me sometimes top eleven games.

[HoofDaddy]

What's a book?

i get your analogy, only difference is the adventure goes on without you if you close this book.

Personally, I feel the game does a lot of quick statistical comparisons with modifiers (bonuses, attendance, SAs, OOP, and so on.
I still don't understand how formation/orders figure into it but it is definitely a deciding factor. I'd attribute the formation/orders matchup as being between 25-50% weight of the overall match calculation.

[nikolgiorgos]

“Rock (stone)- paper –scissors”


It’s a popular (lucky) game.
What has to do with this thread ?

I inspired to write for this, from two recent posts
-This comment of Khris #254-255
V killed 4-4-2
http://forum.topeleven.com/top-eleve...-ready-26.html


And this, from a thread-guide I started (#5)
http://forum.topeleven.com/formation...tml#post411053

In this post, I gathered older threads about popular formations like those 3 : 4-5-1V, 4-4-2 classic, 4-4-2 ND.
In most of those threads, half the people claim that those systems can be used as counters to each other (experienced managers, with examples- images, like the first example of Buffs Mad), the other half saying the opposite.

How can it be ?
Maybe there is another factor, adding those three “situations” of this lucky game.
Sometimes 4-5-1 V is the “paper” which wraps the rock, sometimes it’s the “scissor” which brakes on it.
Can we understand (or predict) which is the set up in a TE game ?
Don’t know.

But if you played as a kid this game, you can remember that sometimes you could use some stats to predict which will be your opponent's choice or maybe to understand from the psychology.

[Buffs Mad]

Rock Paper Scissors or Weak Neutral Strong or whatever are popular bases for game mechanics.

However imo its not suitable for a T11 model. T11 seems more lick and action/event based similation where the success or failure is based on numerical comparisons that are modifird. Think more of Dungeons and Dragons type mechanics. Compare your attacking stats (weapon, strength accurracy etc) v my defensive stats (constitution, agilty, etc) for each critical action/even. The weak neutral strong are just additional modifiers in the calculations.

[nash123]

Why Nordeus f*cks me???
(finally lost 2:1 vs a team, where no manager was there)



Why suddenly me attackers aren't able to score? The have to best season ever (all attackers together scored 143 goals...)
This kind of BS is so frustrating... and... no reason, why this happens...

[Ahlony Wong]

don't think...just believe it is luck..... 2nd time in a row in the CL final lost... and AM said the opposite is luck again....



first half... i already 3:1 ...winning...



and beginning of the 2nd half... he score 4 times in 45 min.......





even the much stronger team in CUP, can only score me 3 times in 180 min.... (he is the only go into the final this season... his team is LV15.... 8 stars...almost 9 stars to me when the time my team (LV13) is only 7 stars facing him early this season...)



and the whole season... i only have 11 GA... even against strong team, i still have a pretty clean sheet~



and in this CL.... he can score 4 times in 45 min!!! with 40(his) to 60 (my team) possession with 118% vs 141.9% ( yea, even Q is not everything...but my players are still much stronger than that....)

if that is no LUCK~~ who can believe this????

[nikolgiorgos]

Rock Paper Scissors or Weak Neutral Strong or whatever are popular bases for game mechanics.
However imo its not suitable for a T11 model. T11 seems more lick and action/event based similation where the success or failure is based on numerical comparisons that are modifird. Think more of Dungeons and Dragons type mechanics. Compare your attacking stats (weapon, strength accurracy etc) v my defensive stats (constitution, agilty, etc) for each critical action/even. The weak neutral strong are just additional modifiers in the calculations.

well, i believe that TE has more complicate forms of luck than that
for example what are saying, doesn't explain why a normal team cannot win an oppo who set his team in "Wall"
or why I won about 20-25% of my games in league where I made an experiment (using a 1* ST for GK)
http://forum.topeleven.com/%CE%95%CE...ix-result.html

@HoofDaddy

I still don't understand how formation/orders figure into it but it is definitely a deciding factor. I'd attribute the formation/orders matchup as being between 25-50% weight of the overall match calculation.

That's something in my future plans. I 'll play one season with a team, where I 'll set in every game exactly the "wrong" formation (but not players out of position).
I 'll let you know when.

@nash123
sorry about that
Anyway, this thread it's not about to post some "bad moments" of our team but to "explore" the forms of luck in TE.

@Ahlony Wong
sorry for you too
I also read your other thread and I wonder if those goals conceded, (if and) when you used attack or defense +bonus button.
I had some experience to that.

[Ahlony Wong]

@Ahlony Wong
sorry for you too
I also read your other thread and I wonder if those goals conceded, (if and) when you used attack or defense +bonus button.
I had some experience to that.

I always use attack bonus with mostly my same team, same formation... and all my bonus always 8% at least... and mostly 10% if in major match like last CL final....

some people talking about the formation may cause it, but i don't change my formation since season 2 (i am season 13 right now) and i won all the league games and CL title (except i lost the CL final these two season) my formation faced almost all the formation.... and i believe won all kind of the formation so far... that why i don't think formation play a "bad luck" for that... (well... 1:0 or 2:0 maybe.... but you see my last CL game... really? 4 goal in 45 min....while my whole season... no one score more than 3 goal in 180 min for my team.....that is unbelievable LOL especially the score was 1:0, 2:0; 2:1, 3:1, 3:2, 4:2 and then..... 4:3,4:4, 4:5 ---> lost.... )...really??? that is really troll .... LOL

and the AM again said ....they got lucky ...... so... yeah...they really "luck" LOL if no luck... how he can score me 4 times in 45min?? (and his formation was DL, DC, DC, DR, MC MC AMR AML, ST, ST ----> this is the same formation that the 2nd place in my league uses and his team is much stronger (his AML is the highest Q in the team Q 96... 8 star when the first time i faced him)... than this CL opposite ~~ i still won 2:0 and 3:1 this season~ with the same formation)

so... if you are luck... you can win whoever you are facing... LOL